Valued Customers
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 15.3 | 18.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 16.4 | 15.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | 8.6 | 9.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.9 | 19.5 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.1 | 17.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | 16.9 | 18.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 8.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | 6.1 | --- |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 17.6 | 17.5 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 13.8 | 14.0 |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 12.1 | --- |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | QB | 17.9 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | RB | 3.2 |
| Ray Davis | RB | RB | 2.6 |
| DJ Moore | WR | WR | 9.1 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR | 8.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE | 10.0 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB/WR/TE | 5.3 |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | K | 8.9 |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.5 |
| Chris Boswell (bench) | K | BE | 7.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 |
| J.J. McCarthy (bench) | QB | BE | 14.6 |
| Keon Coleman (bench) | WR | BE | 2.2 |
| Packers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 3.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 |
| Sam LaPorta (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 |
Week 14 presents a favorable matchup against Meat Pistols with strong win probability (~85%). The lineup prioritizes upside with Jacoby Brissett at QB (70% BOOM probability vs LAR's porous defense) over the safer Jordan Love. Irving's return from injury combined with a juicy NO matchup (28th vs RB) provides RB1 stability. Jameson Williams locks in Thursday against DAL's 30th-ranked pass defense in a potential shootout (54.5 game total). Key concerns are Omarion Hampton's return status (GTD vs PHI's elite run defense) and MHJ's Wednesday practice absence - both require Sunday monitoring.
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | LAR | 15.3 | 18.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | Unk | 16.4 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | CLE | 8.6 | 9.5 | MODERATE | LOW |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | ATL | 20.9 | 19.5 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | HOU | 17.1 | 17.5 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Jameson Williams | DAL | 16.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | ATL | 8.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | ARI | 6.8 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - MC shows 70% BOOM mode for Brissett vs LAR. High game total (47.0), ARI +8 = garbage time passing.
FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Marvin Harrison Jr. - MHJ missed Wednesday practice. JWill in smash spot vs DAL (30th vs WR, 54.5 total).
RB2: Start Tyjae Spears over Omarion Hampton - Hampton returning from IR vs elite PHI run D. Spears safer floor.
| Player | Pos | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 45.6% | 34.2% | 20.2% | MEDIUM |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 36.0% | 44.3% | 19.8% | MEDIUM |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 33.7% | 35.3% | 31.0% | MEDIUM |
| Jordan Love | QB | 30.3% | 48.2% | 21.5% | MEDIUM |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 25.5% | 44.8% | 29.7% | MEDIUM |
| Evan Engram | TE | 25.3% | 49.2% | 25.5% | MEDIUM |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 21.5% | 43.5% | 34.9% | MEDIUM |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 19.2% | 46.7% | 34.1% | MEDIUM |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 13.5% | 36.2% | 50.3% | MEDIUM |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 12.9% | 29.2% | 57.9% | MEDIUM |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 12.0% | 40.9% | 47.2% | MEDIUM |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 11.9% | 65.3% | 22.7% | MEDIUM |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 11.5% | 36.4% | 52.0% | MEDIUM |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 11.1% | 32.7% | 56.2% | MEDIUM |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 10.3% | 36.9% | 52.8% | MEDIUM |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 9.7% | 36.4% | 53.9% | MEDIUM |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 8.7% | 31.2% | 60.1% | MEDIUM |
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 17.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (16th vs QB). GB -6.5 favorite in shootout potential (44.5 total). Hot streak: 31/43 337yds 3TD Week 13. MODERATE mode [9.1-24.1]. Weather concern but dome-like for cold weather team. Selecting 17.5 in MODERATE range.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 12
XGBoost: Boom 30% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: XGB: 22% boom, 35% bust. vs LAR (10th vs QB). High game total (47.0). MC shows 70% BOOM mode! ARI +8 underdog = passing volume. LLM AGREES with MC BOOM selection despite XGB moderate signal. 18.0 in BOOM range [16.5-27.5].
Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 10 | ECR: 8
XGBoost: Boom 22% | Bust 35% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 10% boom, 54% bust - HIGH bust risk. vs NO (28th vs RB - JUICY). TB -8.5 favorite = positive game script for RB usage. Returned Week 13 with 19 touches (17 carries). MODERATE mode [7.9-19.9]. Despite high bust risk from XGB, favorable matchup justifies MODERATE. 15.0 within range.
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 23
XGBoost: Boom 10% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 9.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 19% boom, 34% bust. vs CLE (8th vs RB - TOUGH). Low game total (33.5) = limited scoring. TEN +4.5 underdog = negative game script risk. MC MODERATE [5.3-13.3]. MODERATE 9.5 accounts for committee split with Pollard. Ceiling capped.
Context: O/U: 33.5 | Def Rank: 8
XGBoost: Boom 19% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: RETURNING FROM IR but game-time decision MNF vs PHI. PHI elite run D (5th). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. Even if activated, will be on snap count. Setting 0.0 as conservative - UPDATE SUNDAY if activated with clear role.
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 5
XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: BENCH player. XGB: 14% boom, 50% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs. vs CHI. Not in lineup consideration. 0.0 (bench).
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 12
XGBoost: Boom 14% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 19.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 12% boom, 23% bust - MODERATE profile. @ATL (26th vs WR - SMASH spot). SEA -7 favorite = positive game script. Target leader for SEA. MC MODERATE [12-26]. Selecting 19.5 in MODERATE - consistent high floor.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 26 | ECR: 1
XGBoost: Boom 12% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: BYE WEEK (CAR). No projection needed.
Context: Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 12% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 36% boom, 20% bust - BOOM profile. vs LAR (12th vs WR). MISSED WEDNESDAY PRACTICE - monitor. High game total (47.0) but ARI +8 underdog = garbage time upside. MC MODERATE [7.8-16.2]. 14.0 in MODERATE, could upgrade to BOOM if healthy Friday.
Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13
XGBoost: Boom 36% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 17.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 34% boom, 31% bust - VOLATILE. vs HOU (14th vs WR). KC -4.5 favorite. MC shows 47% BOOM probability but XGB more conservative. Selecting MODERATE mode [10.6-21.4] due to HOU decent secondary. 17.5 balanced projection.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 14 | ECR: 3
XGBoost: Boom 34% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 16.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: THURSDAY GAME vs DAL completed. XGB: 12% boom, 47% bust. High-scoring game (54.5 total). DAL 30th vs WR = BOOM spot. Note: Check actual score. MC MODERATE [8.9-21.1]. Projecting MODERATE 18.0.
Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16
XGBoost: Boom 12% | Bust 47% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: BENCH player. XGB: 10% boom, 53% bust. vs PHI (7th vs WR - TOUGH). LAC +3 underdog. If starting Hampton returns, Allen depth chart impact unclear. Not in lineup consideration. 0.0 (bench).
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 23
XGBoost: Boom 10% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 26% boom, 30% bust. @TB (18th vs TE). NO +8.5 underdog = passing volume for garbage time. MC BOOM mode at 36%! But selecting MODERATE [5.7-12.3] due to low team total (17.0 implied). 10.0 in MODERATE range.
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18 | ECR: 6
XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: BYE WEEK (NE). No projection needed.
XGBoost: Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 17.5
XGBoost: Boom 30% | Bust 22%
Notes: XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (16th vs QB). GB -6.5 favorite in shootout potential (44.5 total). Hot streak: 31/43 337yds 3TD Week 13. MODERATE mode [9.1-24.1]. Weather concern but dome-like for cold weather team. Selecting 17.5 in MODERATE range.
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
XGBoost: Boom 12% | Bust 52%
Notes: BYE WEEK (CAR). No projection needed.
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 14.0
XGBoost: Boom 36% | Bust 20%
Notes: XGB: 36% boom, 20% bust - BOOM profile. vs LAR (12th vs WR). MISSED WEDNESDAY PRACTICE - monitor. High game total (47.0) but ARI +8 underdog = garbage time upside. MC MODERATE [7.8-16.2]. 14.0 in MODERATE, could upgrade to BOOM if healthy Friday.
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A
XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 56%
Notes: RETURNING FROM IR but game-time decision MNF vs PHI. PHI elite run D (5th). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. Even if activated, will be on snap count. Setting 0.0 as conservative - UPDATE SUNDAY if activated with clear role.
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM N/A
XGBoost: Boom 14% | Bust 50%
Notes: BENCH player. XGB: 14% boom, 50% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs. vs CHI. Not in lineup consideration. 0.0 (bench).
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM N/A
XGBoost: Boom 10% | Bust 53%
Notes: BENCH player. XGB: 10% boom, 53% bust. vs PHI (7th vs WR - TOUGH). LAC +3 underdog. If starting Hampton returns, Allen depth chart impact unclear. Not in lineup consideration. 0.0 (bench).
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
XGBoost: Boom 9% | Bust 60%
Notes: BYE WEEK (NE). No projection needed.
Win Probability
Floor: -8.1 pts | Median: +31.6 pts | Ceiling: +69.7 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | QUESTIONABLE | 12.2 | Sam LaPorta | 11.9 |
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 87.2 | 84.7% | +31.1 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 89.0 | 84.0% | +29.9 |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 18.0 | 4.3-28.1 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.3-24.7 | ↑15+: 45% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 9.5 | 2.2-20.1 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | HIGH | 19.5 | 5.6-30.1 | ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 17.5 | 7.0-28.1 | ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 18.0 | 4.1-25.4 | ↑15+: 46% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.5-17.0 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 24% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.0-17.5 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 4.5-16.5 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 14% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 17.5 | 6.5-28.0 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 2.5-24.0 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 0.4-20.1 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 4.9-25.8 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.3-21.9 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 19% | |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 4.5-26.2 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.4-21.6 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 28% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | MED | 20.2 | 9.8-31.6 | ↑15+: 69% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | HIGH | 7.5 | 1.6-16.1 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Ray Davis | RB | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.2-15.9 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 48% | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | HIGH | 7.7 | 0.4-16.9 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 42% | |
| DJ Moore | WR | HIGH | 11.8 | 4.1-22.9 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Malik Washington | WR | HIGH | 8.3 | 2.1-15.8 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | HIGH | 9.6 | 2.7-18.4 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.3 | 0.0-20.9 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 60% | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | HIGH | 9.0 | 3.3-16.3 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 23% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.5-26.8 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | MED | 22.3 | 11.4-35.0 | ↑15+: 72% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.2-21.1 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.6-18.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | HIGH | 11.4 | 3.5-20.0 | ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Packers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.0-16.0 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 47% | |
| Chris Boswell | K | HIGH | 8.4 | 1.9-15.5 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 30% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 22% @ 23.8 | 61% @ 14.0 | 17% @ 4.3 | 14.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 23% @ 29.4 | 43% @ 18.6 | 34% @ 7.2 | 17.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 47% @ 24.2 | 29% @ 15.7 | 25% @ 7.9 | 17.8 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 18% @ 20.4 | 61% @ 8.9 | 20% @ 3.0 | 9.8 |
| Jason Myers | K | 22% @ 15.9 | 44% @ 11.2 | 34% @ 5.8 | 10.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 36% @ 14.7 | 35% @ 9.2 | 28% @ 3.6 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 26% @ 24.0 | 41% @ 15.2 | 33% @ 5.6 | 14.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 70% @ 21.7 | 5% @ 14.8 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 23% @ 16.3 | 40% @ 8.0 | 37% @ 1.3 | 7.5 |
No urgent moves with Hampton returning. If both RBs out: Isiah Pacheco (KC), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WSH), or Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) are best available. Chuba Hubbard on bye.
No major injury concerns.
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.